MODELLING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATE AND AVERAGE PRICE OF PETROL (APP) (2019 – 2023)
Main Article Content
Abstract
This work aims to model the relationship between Nigeria’s exchange rate (NGN/USD) and the monthly average price of petrol (APP). The source of data collection is the secondary method and data obtained from www.statista.com/statistics and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The data were analyzed with the aid of SPSS 29. The result showed that there is a significant positive relationship between the exchange rate and the monthly average price of petrol. On the nature of the relationship, six (6) models were fitted to the bivariate data and the polynomial of order 2 (quadratic) model was found to be the best model as it had the highest R̅2 and Adjusted R̅2 of 0.762 and 0.752, respectively. Based on this, conclusions it was recommended that Government should look critically at ways to control the fall of the Naira to the US Dollar.
Downloads
Article Details
Issue
Section
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
References
Abrams, R. K. (1980). International Trade Flows Under Flexible Exchange Rates. Economic Review, 65(3), 3-10.
Alssadek, M., Benhin, J. (2021), Oil boom, exchange rate and sectoral output: An empirical analysis of Dutch disease in oil-rich countries. Resources Policy, 74, 102362.
Amano, R.A., Van Norden, S. (1998), Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate. Journal of International Money and finance, 17(2), 299-316.
Atif, M., Rabbani, M.R., Jreisat, A., Al-Mohamad, S., Siddiqui, T.A., Hussain, H., Ahmed, H. (2022), Time varying impact of oil prices on stock returns: Evidence from developing markets. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 17, 477-486
Bedin, A.F., Kulikov, A.V., Polbin, A.V. (2021), A markov switching VECM model for Russian real GDP, real exchange rate and oil prices. International Journal o f Energy Economics and Policy, 11(2), 402-412.
Bedin, A.F., Kulikov, A.V., Polbin, A.V. (2021), A markov switching VECM model for Russian real GDP, real exchange rate and oil prices. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(2), 402-412.
Das, S. (2021), The time-frequency relationship between oil price, stock returns and exchange rate. Journal of Business Cycle Research, 17, 129-149.
Eryiğit, M. (2012), The dynamical relationship between oil price shocks and selected macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 25(2), 263-276.
Gbadebo, O. O. (2007). Crude oil and the Nigerian economic performance. Oil and Gas Business, http://www.ogbus.ru/eng/
Hassan, S., & Zahid, M. (2011). The real exchange rate of an oil exporting economy: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. FIW Working Paper 72, September.
Hilton, M. A. (1984). Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainity on German and U.S. Trade. Ferderal Rerserve Bank of New York , 7-16.
Jhingan, M. L. (2002). Macro Economic Theory Delhi Vrinda Publications (P) Limited. Delhi Vrinda Publications (P) Limited.
Long, S., Zhang, M., Li, K., Wu, S. (2021), Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices? Financial Innovation, 7(1), 48.
Marzieh, M. (2006). Impact of oil price on international economy, Term Paper, International Economics Master Course, Center of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, KTH University .
Mordi, C. N. (2006). Challenges of Exchange Rate Volatility in Economic Management in Nigeria. Central Bank of Nigeria Bulletin, 30(3). 17-25.
Obadan, M. I. (2006). Overview of Exchange rate Management in Nigeria from 1986 to date. Central Bank of Nigeria Bulletin, 30(3), 17-25.
Philip, A. O., & Akintoye, V. A. (2006). Oil price shock and macroeconomic activities in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, ISSN 1450-2887 Issue 3. http://www.eurojournals.com/finance.htm
Akinyemi et al., 2025 Frontline Professionals Journal 2(5), 1-6
Raju, G.A., Shirodkar, S., Marathe, S.R. (2021), Nexus between crude oil, exchange rate and stock market returns: An empirical evidence from Indian context. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(3), 170-175